November 7, 2006
The Polls to Beware of?
Beware, indeed, Collin. But while 11 percent is big, 1 percent (or -1 percent) might be even bigger. I've searched in vain for the actual link to the October New York Times/CBS poll that so many people have referred to (best guess is that it's some variation on this), but it is widely referred to as showing evangelicals preferring Democrats to Republicans by a 42% to 41% margin. (Which, one assumes, is within the margin of error, but still...)
Other polls are closer to what you've noted: WorldPublicOpinion.org says evangelicals are voting 56%-41% for Republican congressional candidates. Newsweek says 60% to 31% Republican.
I guess the numbers that matter most will be those exit poll figures.