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January 8, 2008

New Hampshire: The polling gets better

After Iowa omission, Democrats are finally asked about religion.

This was supposed to be the year the Democrats got religion. Too bad somebody forgot to tell the pollsters. One of the big untold stories of the Iowa caucus is that only Republicans were asked about their religious affiliation.

The problem isn't just that we don't know how many Iowan evangelicals voted for the various Democrats (it would be interesting to see, for example, if Edwards scored as well among evangelicals as he did among conservatives). The problem is that we don't know whether Democrats as a whole have succeeded in attracting more evangelical voters. (Usually somewhere between one quarter and one third of evangelicals vote Democratic.) I'm told we'll see some Iowa caucus poll results soon (not from Edison Media Research, the company that does most of these entrance and exit polls) that may shine some light on the religion questions.

The good news is that Edison Media Research has repented, and today's New Hampshire exit polls (via CNN [Rep | Dem] and MSNBC [Rep | Dem] )had many religion questions for both Republicans and Democrats.

Clinton, it seems, took the moderately religious (those who attend church monthly or a few times a year), while Obama took the devout (weekly attenders) and the nonreligious (those who never attend church). Roman Catholics (the largest religious group among New Hampshire Democrats, with 36% of voters in that primary), overwhelmingly chose Clinton (43%) over Obama (28%). Those who said they had no religion supported Obama (47%) over Clinton (28%), and that formed a remarkable 22 percent of Democratic voters.

Unfortunately, voters in the Democratic primary were not asked if they consider themselves evangelical or born again.

Republicans were, and 22 percent said they were evangelical or born again. One third voted for Huckabee, 30 percent voted for McCain, and 24 percent supported Romney. But McCain had a very strong showing among among those who said they were not evangelical: 38 percent. (Romney had 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent).

It's helpful to compare the evangelical numbers with the political identification numbers. As usual, the evangelical Republican vote was not synonymous with the "very conservative" Republican vote. One of five voters in the Republican primary identified themselves as very conservative, and they went overwhelmingly to Romney: 42 percent (compared to 21 percent for Huckabee and 19 percent for McCain). The Arizona senator scored highest in all other political identification categories.

Anyone care to interpret McCain's winning the "candidate's religious views matter a great deal" vote? Can voters even describe McCain's religious views?

Comments

In my 26 years as a pastor and 36 as a believer in Jesus Christ, I have noticed a disconect between people's stated belief system on the one hand, nd the candidates they support on the other. For instance, there is one older man in our church who always votes Democratic because he believes tag lines such as "They are for the little guy."

He, and others, have no conception of the importance of such things as appointing justices who are constitutional constructionists. He, and other, seem to place no value upon pro-life candidates either, even though our church has always been outspoken about such issues and the worldviews behind them.

Does anyone really know the church that Obam belongs to? I mean, has it been explained what they believe and where they stand on the issue of IS JESUS CHRIST TRULY GOD?
If we know the facts, why doesn't someone state them?

What is stated is true. I see no person in any of the 3 major parties that I could really vote for. Some are good speakers but...... Experience gives us a big question. Where do they stand for example on the 7 fold statement of the NAE?

Who is concerned and what will be done about the borders?
Who and what is a realistic plan for Iraq?
Who is willing to deal with the Electroal College and dump it so we can have our vote as a person count? e.g. I live in Oregon and any vote is not for my canadate but for a democrate so why vote?

Bruce Manning

D. Guy Neddo asks about Obama's faith.
Here are some links to info about Obama's faith.

Below are a few links to articles about Obama's faith.  It differs from Oprah's.