Pew Forum asks whether evangelicals will flock to any particular candidate.
In the vast canon of analysis of evangelical voters, John Green's interview with Pew Forum is speculative but helpful. There are the things we already know (e.g. Giuliani has an "issues problem" for evangelicals), but also some thinking past Super Tuesday - and before George W.
Green sees three real contenders for the majority of the evangelical vote: Huckabee, Romney, and McCain.
But are any Democrats likely to snag many evangelicals? Obama's comfort with speaking about his faith seems to give some evangelicals the warm fuzzies, Green says, and Democrats may get a greater proportion of young evangelicals this election.
"A lot of the anecdotal evidence from the campaign trail suggests that these are folks that may like to see a different relationship between evangelicals and the Republican Party," Green said, explaining that McCain's rocky relationship with Religious Right leaders Pat Robertson and the late Jerry Falwell might not blight his campaign.
To truly get a majority of evangelicals, Green says, a candidate needs three characteristics: personal appeal, electability, and issue positions that are "minimally comfortable." Presumably, it's Democratic issue positions that continue to push evangelicals to the Republican candidates.
Asked about how Huckabee's evangelical support would be dispersed if he withdrew, Green responds:
The fact that Huckabee has come this far with relatively little organization and a real lack of funds is because of the enthusiasm of some evangelicals at the grassroots level who have been campaigning for him on their own initiative. That kind of enthusiasm is difficult to shift from one candidate to another.It's at least plausible that if Huckabee's followers stay involved in the process, they may find John McCain more congenial than some of the other GOP candidates.
Does this mean that most evangelicals will vote Republican next November? Or will they remain divided and unpredictable in a field where every candidate seems to have two but not three of the characteristics they're looking for?
Posted by Susan Wunderink on January 29, 2008 1:51PM

Comments
As an evangelical, I have been torn over the past 30 years about who to vote for for President. I have never been able to see how a Christian could fall for the Republican myth "that they are the one's who represent Christianity best". I have had a major problem though over the years in regards to the Democrats being insistent about "a woman's right to choose". In my opinion, it is not her life, and therefore is not her choice to make.
But, still, when I read what Jesus had to say about being a Christian, I still feel that its the Democrats who more closely resemble Jesus (the very first Liberal). I just re-read Luke 10:25-37 (The parable of the Good Samaritan) When the religious leader asked Jesus how he could inherit eternal life, Jesus told him that he was right by stating what is written in the law. "that you love the Lord your God w/ all your passion & prayer & muscle & intellegence, and you love your neighbor as well as you do yourself" (The Message). When the guy asked Jesus how he'd be able to tell who his neighbor was, Jesus told the parable of the Good Samaritan.
Want'a know who an Evangelical in the year 2008 should vote for for President of the United States? Who best resembles the Good Samaritan. Is it McCain, or Romney, or Huckbee? Or parhaps its Hillary Clinton-----And perhaps its a NON-White guy by the name of Barak Obama! Boy,wouldn't that shake up some conventional Republican type-Christian wisdom! My choice is this: Barak O for President with Mike H as his VP. (won't happen, but its exciting to consider).
Posted by: Jim at January 30, 2008
I would hope Evangelicals would flock to John McCain. I was a Huckebee supporter until I saw John McCain’s Christmas ad – which showed a cross being drawn in the sand, and he talked about his time as a prisoner of war. I knew then he was a candidate who called upon the same Christian God I believed in during an inhumane situation. And, he would call upon Him, again, in times of trial that our country most likely will go through in future years. In our Pledge of Allegiance, it states “One Nation under God” and we who are followers of Christ know who that God is – any man/woman in office who believes in that same God should be an important candidate for all Evangelicals. If you are a conservative Republican who is a strong follower of radio and TV talk show hosts – who may or may not have a faith in the Christian God – then voting for a non believer, wouldn’t make much difference to you. But, its’ time for Evangelical’s who are believers, to draw their own line in the sand, and cross over to a candidate: who is a great patriot and not a quitter, who has always been pro life, who is a friend of Israel, who would control spending when we have run- away spenders in Congress, a candidate that will secure our boarders , and who doesn’t have a prejudice heart against honest people with a secure work pass doing, a honest days work within our boarders, and as a President who will give those, like our grandparents, who came legally into our country the opportunity to become a citizen in this great land. Then you too need to join the supporters of John McCain.
I am praying we will see a McCain/ Hucekee ballot this fall.
Posted by: Patsy O'Shea at January 30, 2008
I could never vote for a person who would OK the killing our own children I do not see that one of the Democrates protecting our own children while they will go way out of their wat to protect some endagered animal. Most will even approved partial-birth abortion which is never medically necessary. They do not want to protect our nation anywhere even here at home. They want to protect the rights of terriorist or suspected terrorist more than our right for protection.
Posted by: Wendell Buck at January 30, 2008
Re:Patsy O'Shea
First of all, I am a democrat.I, too, am against abortion,as a means of birth control.However, there are at times, medical reason for an abortion. I abhor partial-birth abortions, but to make a statement as Patsy O'Shea did, is not only wrong, but assinine. There have been cases in late pregnancies where a partial abortion was necessary in order to save the mother's life.As strongly as I feel against abortions, I am not God.I don't have the right to tell someone else what they can do or can't do. That is entirely between that person and God. Does Patsy think it's ok to tell her what she can do with her body? If she is obese, should we tell her that she cannot be obese and throw her into jail if she is? After all, gluttony is a sin that is spoke of quite often in the bible. I am a Christian and I love God with all my heart, all my soul and with all my mind. I try very hard, with God's help, to love my neighbor "More" than myself. Now, you might ask, how could I be a Christian and a Democrat. Well, you say that you wouldn't vote for a candidate who would allow a woman the right to make her own decisions, well, I wouldn't vote for a candidate who had no compassion for people, who spent their life on death row in prison. Nope, didn't matter to him if that person had changed, or had accepted Christ and had done alot of good while in prison, this candidate said, "Kill him/her". I wouldn't vote for a candidate who started an unjust war and lied trough his teeth about it and has been the cause of thousands of young men and women, old people and "kids" losing their lives and thousands who have lost arms, legs, etc. and what life they had before this war. Perhaps the count is in the millions. I wouldn't vote for a candidate who could care less about the poor, elderly, and children who don't belong to the rich. I could go on and on, but I think I've made my point. As for abortion, I would do all I possibly could to persuade the mother not to do it, but the final decision should be hers, and certainly not the government!
Posted by: Jeanne at January 30, 2008
Three cheers for Wendell Buck!
Posted by: Fred Nichols at January 30, 2008
Janet Folger, an evangelical activist, continues to give the best thumbnail sketches of the candidates at WorldNetDaily. Her article “We will choose the nominee” is outstanding.
Of John McCain, she recounts how he sued a citizen group called Wisconsin Right to Life for literally suggesting citizens contact their senators about a filibuster on judicial nominees. Elsewhere, she advised that McCain is one of only seven Republican senators who voted against the Marriage Protection Amendment.
Mike Huckabee is the only viable candidate who is for the Marriage Protection Amendment and who is pro-life. He has substance and he has style.
Barack Obama is….well, check what Jill Stanek, a nurse, has to say about him in her articles at WorldNetDaily, especially “Why Jesus Would Not Vote for Barack Obama.” It quickly takes the focus off his seemingly easygoing style and puts it back on what the Lord says in the Ten Commandments.
Posted by: Discerning believer at January 30, 2008
I am stunned (but not surprised) by many of the comments above. It's so amusing to me that so many evalgelicals and professing Christians are so involved and spun up about politics on any level. WHO places the powers over the Nations? WHO determines who will be the next President of the United States of America, the next Prime Minister of England?
WHO knows and has always known who will be the next autocratic, ambivelent, productive or counter-productive, apathetic, or empathic ruler over any/all cities, counties, courts,countries and realms of whatever description?
BTW Jeanne, Jesus was not a 'liberal'...ever; certainly not in any manner that can be equated with an American political party.
He was/is GOD. He created and places the highest possible value on all life (yes; especially human), including 'yet to see daylight' children... from the moment that he 'opens the womb'(conception).
Your position on 'choice' is a classic, rationalized 'Liberal Christian' (That's an interesting phrase...kind of like 'grape nuts'.. it's actually neither) view that I so often hear expressed. It's just simply not supportable by Biblical truth or any empirical evidence. Also; with your last comments, you are describing the attack on our WTC; aren't you? Surely you're not describing our selfless leaders; servicemen and women who so faithfully and unreservedly stand between us and 'the bullets of madmen' daily....are you?
I will never, ever understand the brainwashed, liberal mind.
Posted by: vic at January 30, 2008
Re Jeanne
I think I know where you were going with your post and I agree with some of your issues BUT not your comparison of an obese woman with a pregnant woman. This is nonsensical! An obese woman can choose to eat what she wants and remain as unhealthy as she wants, without interfering per se with the rights of others. A pregnant woman who feels she has a right to her own body and thus an abortion completely ignores the rights of another, the most primary right of all, the right to LIVE.
We are told not to be a one issue voter,and I support that, but when life is involved it is hard to do !! Knowing who to vote for as a Bible loving evangelical,at this juncture, is quite confusing !!
Posted by: pete dayton at January 31, 2008
The very idea that evangelicals (or any other flavor of Christian)would vote based on party affiliation boggles my mind. What happened to trying to follow the teachings of Jesus? If you look at it that way, republicans win on abortion (at least in cases where it's used as birth control) and democrats win on everything else. It seem to me that McCains' problem with the right is that he doesn't seem to be far right enough.He seems to actually think about things (at least sometimes) as opposed to reading always from the far right play book. Huckabee wins the far right religious types but loses the far right political types because he's not willing to throw immigrants and poor folks under the bus. Romney can't appeal to the right wing religious types 'cause he's a Mormon. Good Lord! What a far right wing nut to do????
Posted by: Ken at January 31, 2008
Well, I think Vic has the last and final word. It is not what WE think, but what the Word of God says. the Bible is clear on many issues--if we would only listen and follow it! thanks Vic
Posted by: Guy Neddo at January 31, 2008
re:discerning beleiever, you ought to know what brainwashed means.the LORD DOES SET UP KINGS BUT IT IS IS SOMETIMES FOR OUR JUDGEMENT AS NOT IN DANIEL 4,BUT IN 11 KINGS 17&18 IT WAS ALLOWED BABYLON TO TAKE THEM IN CAPTIVY TO PUNISH THEM FOR IDOL WORSHIP. CHILD SACFRICES ETC.IT AMAZES ME TO VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE THAT IS OF THE JUDAS PARTY AND THE WAVE MONEY AND SAY WE TAKE THE PLACE OF THE FATHER THE GOD OF HEAVEN. I WILL NOT SUPPORT CANDIDATES IT IS OKAY TO MORDER BABIES,TO MAKE GOD OUTAWED IN THE SCOOLS WHERE YOU CAN CUSS HIM BBUT NOT PRAY. I AM A DEMOCRAT AND HAVE NEVER VOTED PRO-ABORTION CANDIDATE IF THERE IS NOT ONE I WILL WRITE THEM IN. ROY BROOKS
Posted by: roy brooks at January 31, 2008
It's ridiculous to think that evangelical christians would/ought to vote republican! I am a Pentecostal AG minister, and I'm throwning my hat into the Democratic party. Not once have I heard the republican party speak of social morality (in regards to the poor and marginalized), ending an unjust war, creatively putting forth a National Health Care initiative,It's SOS! I am becoming more and more aware of other conservative evangelicas who are leaning toward compassion, mercy, and justice. Thanks The Lord for another choice!
Posted by: R. Peavy at February 3, 2008
I am puzled by the reluctance to vote for Mitt Romney among some Evangelicals. He has no problem getting support from many evangelicals, such as in Michigan, where he received higher support from Evangelicals than Mike Huckabee. He also has no problem getting support from Catholics.
Mormons in the US tend to be more conservative politically, on average (though there are of course Mormon Democrats like Harry Reid). Utah voted strongly for Reagan, both times, and for George W. Bush. They did not expect that the president had to share all of their distinctive religious beliefs, since he was not going to lead them in prayer, but in government. They found common cause with those men on their support for Christian values.
Mitt Romney is not asking to be elected pastor of your church. His role as president would be limited to "the things that are Caeser's". But he does support the important traditional Christian values that are shared by Mormons, Catholics and Evangelicals and which are directly affected by government. His dedication to free exercise of religion, including religious expression in connection with public policy debates, was made absolutely clear in his speech at the Bush Presidential Library, which was praised by Dr. Dobson.
Romney is not a threat to any Evangelical's religion. He did not turn the 2002 Olympics into a Mormon event, nor did he turn Massachusetts into a Mormon state, any more than he made Bain Capital a Mormon company. He has throughout his career worked cooperatively with people of all faiths to achieve the great common goals we all share.
I am not proposing that anyone has to vote for Romney, but at the same time, he should not be ruled out simply because of his church membership. He has demonstrated that he does not abuse his leadership positions to give favoritism to Mormons or Mormonism. His prominence at the Olympics and in Massachusetts did not cause any upsurge in conversions to Mormonism. He deserves to be considered on his merits as a man who has been a faithful, church going husband, father and grandfather for forty years, who has demonstrated time and again his respect for other churches.
The fact that Senator McCain is admired greatly by liberals and Democrats is due to his supporting many of their policy positions and opposing those of his Republican colleagues. As an Evangelical minister noted recently, McCain is proud of his McCain-Feingold Act, which takes power of free speech away from citizens and protects the power of incumbent politicians and people who own newspapers, magazines, and radio and TV stations and networks. He will surely reject any judicial candidate who, out of concern for the First Amendment, might rule McCain-Feingold unconstitutional. That means he will also be ruling out judges who believe that Roe v. Wade was an unconstitutional overreaching by the Supreme Court. We will have judges appointed by a nominally Republican president who please liberal Democrats rather than conservative Republicans. The fact that McCain supported Roberts and Alito does not mean he would have nominated them, or anyone like them, when it becomes his power to do so. Given the lack of power by the President and Congress to restrain judges who go beyond their Constitutional limits, the only remedy is to select judges who are dedicated to self-restraint. McCain demonstrably lacks the dedication to the principles of limited judicial power that would be required for him to find and nominate such judges.
Posted by: Raymond Takashi Swenson at February 5, 2008
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