Zogby releases data from pre-election surveys.
Zogby International conducted a survey for Faith in Public Life on how evangelicals voted in Missouri and Tennessee, but the polling firm has been asking the evangelical/born-again question of Democrats since the January 19 Nevada caucuses. PBS’s Religion and Ethics Newsweekly scored the data, and it’s Hillary across the board on the Democratic side.
In every contest, Hillary Clinton bests Barack Obama among white evangelicals, and her support is significantly higher among evangelicals than among white Protestants in general. It was closest in California, where 40 percent of white evangelicals likely to vote in the Democratic primary said they’d vote for Clinton and 38 percent said they’d vote for Obama (among white Protestants, the numbers were 38 percent and 43 percent respectively). White evangelical Democrats went 43/24 for Clinton in Georgia, 59/24 in Missouri (FPL’s post-election survey put it at 54/37), and 59/27 in New Jersey.
But the Zogby data also has numbers for non-whites who identified as evangelical or born again (that’s a rare thing in these kinds of surveys), and while Obama is overwhelmingly winning this group (often by a 2-to-1 margin or better), Hillary is doing significantly better with this group than she is with non-white Protestants in general.
Unfortunately, the Zogby data at the Religion and Ethics Newsweekly site doesn’t give us the broad breakdowns, so we don’t know how many evangelicals said they were likely to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus compared to those who said they were likely to vote in a Republican one. We don’t know how many Democratic voters identified as evangelical, or how many of these were non-white.
But what we do know is that Hillary is doing better among evangelicals than she is among Protestants in general. And that’s a surprise, especially since most pundits have assumed that Obama, not Clinton, is the evangelical favorite on the Democratic side.
See, pollsters? Asking the evangelical question gets you surprising data that news organizations like to talk about!
share thisPosted by Ted Olsen on February 11, 2008 12:40PM
Comments
Considering how bad Zogby blew super Tuesday polls, I'm slightly skeptical of their work currently.
Still, its interesting. I wonder what lies behind it? Do evangelicals believe the discredited disgusting rumor that Obama is a closted Muslim? I'm not sure its a race thing, but its possible.
Posted by: Matt K at February 11, 2008
I'm surprised. I wonder if anyone can posit a possible explanation? As a white, born-again, evanglical Democrat, Obama won my vote hands down.
Posted by: Robyn at February 11, 2008
I don't think that evangelicals prefer Clinton over anyone. It's just that we can't stomach either democratic candidate. I can't imagine an evangelical voting for either one.
Posted by: Debbie Lockledge at February 12, 2008
I think that too few Americans THINK! Here in West Va., a strong evangelical area, many vote for Hillary or Obama--then say they want someone against abortion!! I hear what Ted Olsen says, but does he REALLY get behind the news and realize that Muslims can say ANYTHING? The Koran allows them to lie, if it makes a better outcome.When the Muslim leaders said in 1982"we will take over the world by ANY means, they meant it." However, since God is in control, as I believe, I don't worry. The Rapture WILL COME! But until then, we do need to think and act accordingly.
Posted by: Guy Neddo at February 12, 2008
I am a committed evangelical Christian who voted for Clinton in the primary. I disagree strongly with the Democratic Parties support of abortion and gay rights, but strongly identify with them on foriegn/war policy, civil rights and health care issues. It is immoral to support abortion and gay rights (meaning preferences), but it is equally immoral and irresponsible to support a war which we have no business being in and all the deaths that leads to, as well as other foriegn relations catastrophies the republicans so heartily endorse. It is also immoral to act badly (torture people & do illegal wiretaps without public court approval) just because others commit horrible acts. When we do that we sink to their level. That is not a Christian way to deal with those issues. Lastly, its immoral to deny the poor access to proper health care. When I balance it all out I feel I have to choose the lesser evil: The Democrats. I think it is the correct moral decision, as a Christian.
Posted by: David at February 12, 2008
As a white, evangelical, registered nonpartisan independent, Midwest transplant to the left coast, I voted Obama and am very happy to see the momentum he is picking up. I see this man lifting our spirits and our country out of the mire that the last 8 years have brought us. I see him refocussing our nation on more noble aims. I see him committed to dialogue and partnership in foreign relations. I also see him as electable, and Hillary as not. Unfortunately for Clinton she already has nearly half the nation determined not to vote for her. We must do what we can to ensure that Mr. John "Another 100 Years in Iraq" McCain is not elected to the White House. Go Obama! Yes We Can!
Posted by: Karl at February 13, 2008
In the last few weeks I've been shocked to see "so-called" Christian sites
posting rumors about Mr. Obama, in which he has since proven that were wrong.
Some of the sites were just flat ignorarant and quite fearful at the prospect
of a non-white American president. If the Father has chosen Mr. Obama to be
the next president, then us Christians need to stop fearing the "unknowns" and start praying for Mr. Obama instead.
Posted by: Dee at February 14, 2008
Dear Dee:
We don't know that our Heavenly Father wants Obama to be the next President. And that comment applies to McCain and Clinton also. We should pray for all of them, not just Obama. I will pray that both Clinton and Obama stop supporting the immorality of abortion.
Posted by: Mike at February 15, 2008
I'm an evangelical who will vote for Obama. Many of the evangelicals I know in Kentucky, Vermont and Ohio support Obama above Clinton. Then again, many of the evangelicals I know in Kentucky would never vote for an evangelical, so I don't know how reliable this poll is. If abortion is a litmus test, Clinton and Obama is not an option. But for evangelicals I know in Vermont, more than one issue is considered, which results in many supporting Obama.
Posted by: Derek at February 15, 2008
Looks like all the polling was done before and up to Super Tuesday. Hillary was still strong. But as Obama surges forward--he's swept all primaries and caucusus since Feb. 5--she is losing momentum fast. I see the tide turning and as such I see more evangelicals voting for Obama. Including this one, if he gets the DNC nomination.
Posted by: Angelia Crawford at February 15, 2008
Asking if I prefer Clinton to Obama is akin to asking if I prefer to have a foot amputated to my hand.
Neither, thank you.
Posted by: ChasB at February 15, 2008
Too many so called 'evangelicals' have fallen under the lie of situational ethics of the Democrats. Both Hillary and Obama will say whatever it takes to get elected. They remind me of Janus, the 4-faced god. You may not like what Bush or McClain or Huckabee stand for, but you never have to wonder if they will stand for the same thing next week, next month, next year. With the Democrats it's always "postion d'jour". Liberalism is a lie, an infection, and a creeping path to national ruin.
And THANK GOD, George Bush was president on 9/11.
Posted by: LEC at February 17, 2008
I don't know where these polls get their info I am a born again evangicial, who cannot vote for clinton, I stongly support Obama,and welcome the opportunity to share my reasons with my fellow believers.
Posted by: rex lewis at February 18, 2008
This "terrible choice" would not have happened if social conservatives had expected more morality from their leaders, rather than boiling things down to abortion, gay marriage, and tax cuts. If Dobson and the other "leaders" had shown some spine in standing up for the environment, opposing this unnecessary war, or even shown spine on the torture issue, then perhaps things wouldn't have come to this. One can do all of the above AND oppose abortion, after all, but Dobson and other religious-right leaders wouldn't hear of it. And evangelicals followed nearly in lockstep, rarely questioning the current trajectory of the Repub Party, voting to re-elect Bush by 87 percent.
As a Christian and former Republican who ardently opposes abortion AND cares about the environment, the federal budget and world peace, I'm tired of not having a viable choice for President. I blame Christian conservatives for not demanding more integrity and competence from your leaders for the past thirty years. If you're unhappy with your choice this time around, it's your fault.
Posted by: Patrick at February 19, 2008
I find it odd that 'evangelicals' (which, unfortunately, tends to mean white Christians, in the eyes of the press) support Clinton over Obama. While both support improving conditions of the poor (a besic tenet of Jesus' teachings), as a Christian, I am more impressed by the fact that Obama was raised without a religious backgroud, yet chose to accept Christ as an adult. He has a church home and a relationship with the pastor of his church. He doesn't just mention his faith in passing, he can actually 'account' for it.
Posted by: Leslie at February 27, 2008
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