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November 6, 2012
The Evangelical Electoral Map 2012
Exit polling is sketchier this time around, but there are some noteworthy developments.
(UPDATE: Last night's data was apparently early and incomplete exit poll results. It would have been nice had CNN labeled it as such. We're reworking the map to reflect the more recent data.)
It's a bad year for trying to watch how evangelicals voted, at least compared to the last few election cycles. The National Election Pool, which conducts exit polls for major media outlets, decided to exclude 19 states from its polling this election. But in the remaining states, few surveys are asking voters whether they identify as evangelicals (or born-again Protestants).
So the "Evangelical Electoral Map" for 2012, posted below, looks a lot emptier than it did four years ago. (We've grayed out the states where there's exit poll data available, but not about evangelicals per se. And I've cleared out the states that didn't have any exit poll data.)
Highlights of the exit polls on evangelical voters, compared to 2008:
Florida: Nearly identical to 2008.
Mississippi: Born-again/evangelical Christians were a larger percentage of the voters, and voted for Romney more than they did McCain.
Alabama: About the same as 2008.
Ohio: Slightly larger percentage of the electorate, and (against the trend in other states were evangeilcals were surveyed) more supportive of Obama.
Indiana: Smaller percentage of voters than in 2008, but dramatically higher support of the Republican candidate.
Michigan: About the same percentage of the voters, but significantly more support for Romney over McCain.
Wisconsin: About the same percentage of the voters as 2008, but more Republican.
Minnesota: Somewhat lower percentage of voters compared to four years ago, but dramatically more supportive of the Republican candidate.
Missouri: About the same percentage of voters, but much more supportive of Romney than McCain.
Kansas: Bucking the trend, evangelical support for each party's candidate was the same as it was four years ago, but evangelical makeup of the electorate changed significantly--down 7 points.
Colorado: No significant changes from 2008, though the evangelical makeup of the electorate was slightly up, and slightly less supportive of the Republican candidate.
Nevada: A higher percentage of evangelical voters in 2012, with considerably less support for Romney than McCain. (Obama's numbers stayed pretty similar.)
(Note: These comparisons have been updated, due to apparently better exit poll numbers from 2008's exit polls.)
Comments
When are evangelicals going to get on board with God's will? Clearly it is His plan that Obama should be president, so we need to get on board with the president.
Posted By: ECW | November 7, 2012 7:45 AM
God's will never included same-sex marriage or abortion...at least in the Bible that I read. That being said...He did tell us to pray for those in authority, which I will do, and also to turn from our wicked ways, which is a daily activity for all those who follow Jesus.
Posted By: Paul | November 7, 2012 8:45 AM
Evangelicals made a mistake a long time ago by aligning themselves with the right-wing and party of American militarism, capitalism, environmental destruction, Aynd Rand's atheistic atomized individualism, and xenophobia. Now the Democrats are seen as the "caring" party, embodying "love your neighbors" better than the Republicans. Perhaps it's time to work within the Democratic party and create something akin to European Christian Democracy, which aligns social justice with Christian principles. People who consider themselves "pro-choice" would be more open to "pro-life" arguments if we proposed how we would increase the social safety net and provide support systems for poor women so they won't have to resort to abortion.
Posted By: ChristianCanadian | November 7, 2012 9:33 AM
I'm a born again Christian who voted for Obama mainly because I could not vote for a Mormon who is a member of a satanic cult. I chose not to place politics above God, souls were at stake, and now I pray for Obama, as instructed by Romans 13. I have a clear conscience.
Posted By: Scott | November 7, 2012 10:39 AM
Thank you to all the brain dead evangelicals who decided to not vote in this election. You and your bankrupt theology are the reason that Barak Obama was re-elected. Shame on anyone who dares to say they follow the Lord Jesus Christ and did not vote against Barak Obama.
Thanks to all the 'evil'angelicals in Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa for deciding to sit this election out.
Jesus said: "by their works you will know them" and these people who claim to follow the bible and Christ have shown their evil ways. Romney may have been a mormon, but he was light-years better than this Godless man Obama. Still after 500 years these people are still protesting-
May the Lord Jesus have mercy on your souls-
Posted By: Kephas | November 7, 2012 10:55 AM
As a follower of Jesus, above all I want to love God and then neighbor as self.
I am a white, 40-something Catholic woman, a small business owner and for the most part, an independent voter. I live in Missouri, where the Todd Akin debacle was front and center.
The GOP lost my vote this year with all of their unreasonable, childish behavior. The constant accusations about Muslims and other nonsensical, repugnant, unrelated issues drove me to consider many options. In terms of economy, love of neighbor, care for the widows, children and immigrants, there is zero compassion in the GOP for these groups.
For the first time in my life, I voted a straight Dem ticket. I did so with a clear conscience. Until the GOP is willing to become a party of ideas again, instead of the party of anti-science, anti-woman, anti-immigrant, anti-anything-reasonable, I will vote for the Dems or a 3rd party. It's that simple. I can't believe after all these years that's true, but such is the state of the 2 party system at this point.
I pray we can heal and move forward as country.
Posted By: Terri | November 7, 2012 11:01 AM
I agree with a few of the commentators here but others leave me convinced that it's not good to mix God and politics.
Posted By: Basil | November 7, 2012 11:41 AM
Terri ... how does a Christ follower blindly support the Democrat politicians who .. are gung ho on abortion (ultimate act against women & children); can't move fast enough on redefining biblical marriage; who want to reinterpret the constitution to whatever they want it to be; who vote to spend more than we take in at an obscene level that will bankrupt our children; who force their birth control dictates on religious institutions; who want to raise your taxes on your small business only to give it to government bureaucrats; who lies about what happened in Libya? Really? You are the essential contradiction of those who claim to be Christians but follow none of biblical teaching. It is precisely because of folks like you that I have no hope for our countries future. You fiddle away while our country burns financially and morally. Outraged.
Posted By: Rich | November 7, 2012 12:11 PM
Rich, because I see Him in the least of these. There are so many issues facing us, and I disagree with some of your assessments. We will rise or fall as a whole nation, not as one group or another. The hatred and disdain I observe coming from the far right of the party does nothing to mend fences, nor to create opportunities for the 47% Gov. Romney mentioned.
Jesus was a radical in his day too, standing up to the powers that be, and they killed him for it. They killed him for saying God is Love. They killed him for daring to challenge the status quo. At the moment, the far right of the GOP is the status quo, and we watched last night as they were shocked by the least of these rising up. I'm am proud of our nation and feel hopeful and excited about where we are headed.
Fact: My business has grown (just over doubled, in fact) under President Obama, in fact we did far better with Pres. Obama than under Pres. Bush. We all now have health insurance. My taxes are LESS, not more. We hired more people in the last year, and are able to give them benefits we couldn't afford until the last 2.5 years. I'm excited about what else we can do and how we can grow.
In reflecting on your comment, I realize another reason I voted for the President this time is that I am tired of 65+ year old white men expecting me to blindly obey while telling me what is best for me, my body, my healthcare, my business, my employees, my spiritual life/practice, my children, my family, my parents ailing health, my bank account and my home. I'm not fiddling at all, I'm working hard with the rest of the 99% to create jobs, pay back my student loans, work in the private sector, be with my family and be of service where I can.
I'm very comfortable with my vote and with my God. I wish you all the best too, and hope as a country we can find common ground again.
Peace
Posted By: Terri | November 7, 2012 12:32 PM
Terri, you completely ignored Rich's questions about abortion and marriage.
Posted By: Ben | November 7, 2012 1:37 PM
Terri,
You know what? I am not going to let a 40 something year old woman tell me that supporting an institution who promotes abortion is taking care of the 'least of these.' That is most ridiculous assertion I have ever heard. And by the way, the Man you want to buck against is not white nor 65 years old ... He is from eternity past and doesn't want citizens of this nation destroying life He created. It's all spelled out in the Bible and it's all about us submitting to His ways. Will you? Ironically, you are clearly letting the Democratic crowd school school in their ideology .. trading one master for another .. yea, makes sense to me?
The following facts about abortion in America that should make you sick to your stomach.... this isn't about control over your own body, this is about murdering the next generation of Americans:
# There have been more than 53 million abortions performed in the United States since Roe v. Wade was decided back in 1973 -- more than a million per year.
# The number of American babies killed in one year is roughly equal to the combined number of U.S. military deaths from all of the US wars combined.
# Approximately 3,000 Americans lost their lives as a result of the destruction of the World Trade Center towers on 9/11. Every single day, more than 3,000 American babies are killed by abortion.
# It has been reported that a staggering 41 percent of all New York City pregnancies end in abortion.
# Approximately 52 percent of all African-American pregnancies now end in abortion.
# One very shocking study found that 86 percent of all abortions are done for the sake of convenience.
#In a 1922 book entitled "Woman, Morality, and Birth Control", Planned Parenthood Founder Margaret Sanger wrote the following....
"Birth control must lead ultimately to a cleaner race."
and also said ... "The most merciful thing that a family does to one of its infant members is to kill it."
# The following is one description of the five steps of a partial birth abortion which President Obama sponsored in Illinois, touts as part of his Democratic platform and his wife Michelle also lobbied to protect in 2004:
1) Guided by ultrasound, the abortionist grabs the baby's legs with forceps.
2) The baby's leg is pulled out into the birth canal.
3) The abortionist delivers the baby's entire body, except for the head.
4) The abortionist jams scissors into the baby's skull. The scissors are then opened to enlarge the skull.
5) The scissors are removed and a suction catheter is inserted. The child's brains are sucked out, causing the skull to collapse. The dead baby is then removed.
Still good with you voting decision ?
What do you think the God of Love (and wrath too lest we forget) intends for a political organization and nation that advocates the assault and murder of our own children, especially minority babies, to the tune of 53+ million over 30 years? Adopting democratic agendas is being radical all right .. I can go on and tell you of the fate of civilizations who butchered their own children. I hope you will one day awake and see the invisible destruction and decay of our country; the war of good and evil being waged and eventually how your vote supports it all. Wake up Terri!
Posted By: Rich | November 7, 2012 4:01 PM
Terri,
I think you, along with many who voted for both Obama and Romney, need to understand better how conservatives believe we should care for the poor. You see, it's not that conservatives don't think we should care for the poor. Of course we do. It's that we understand that by far the best way to help the poor is by jobs and wealth created in a free market. This is because only in a free market can the rich and poor both become richer without taking that wealth from others. Leftist economics, frankly, is the worst of news for "the least of these." And although I'm happy to hear that your business is thriving, remember that, necessarily, whatever moral blame or praise accrues to your business successes, it will be in spite of our increasingly leftist economic policies, not because of them.
Posted By: Tim | November 7, 2012 4:53 PM
Thank you Tim...I totally agree. I am a 44 y.o. white, single woman and am just increasingly confused by why people think conservatives hate the middle class, hate the poor, disenfranchised, muslims, and immigrants. I have friends who consider themselves Evangelical Christians who voted for Obama and I do not understand how to reconcile abortion and gay marriage with evangelical beliefs. I love them and I don’t judge them. But I do pray for understanding because I just don’t get it. And no, I don’t hate gay people before someone throws that accusation out. I have friends who are gay and who are in relationships. While I don’t agree with the lifestyle, I still love and care for these people as my friends. (Lest someone feel the need to accuse me, otherwise), And yes, I think it is absolutely ludicrous that the same people who say abortion is a woman’s choice would expect the govt. to pay for their contraception. If you want the choice, then take everything that comes with it. You can’t choose when it’s convenient and then ask the government to take over when it’s not. The bottom line is this...people are voting feelings and emotions instead of issues. Every person I know who voted Obama voted for him because he was black or because he just seems like a really nice guy. Not one of them could say that they believed that he was the man to turn this economy around, not one of them could say that they really liked his stance on defense or foreign policy (standing with Israel)...not one. And I work with some highly educated people so don’t blame it on “lack of education”. It is clear from reading these posts though that conservatives probably need to do a better job of clarifying their stances. Obviously, there’s a disconnect somewhere because Christians don’t see a clear choice and that is sad. As an Evangelical Christian conservative though, I want to be clear that I will pray for Barack Obama, as I always have, and pray for his salvation. I will pray for the protection of his family. And, I will be thrilled if he is able to take the appropriate steps to turn this economy around. But, I believe only when God changes his heart will that happen.
Posted By: Liz | November 7, 2012 6:28 PM
Dear Rich,
Did abortions decrease under 8 years of Bush? No. He is/was pro-life. Did not change a thing. So voting for him based on the fact that he has the right views is means . . . a symbolic victory? Voting for someone who wants to have a pro-life America but cannot even put a dent in the abortion rate makes me wonder what you are voting for!!!
Perhaps the false hope of real change. Because real change would have been the saving of at least on unborn life-right???
If you want to be support pro-life, do things that that are actually pro-life, not pro-posturing. As nice as it would be to live in a world where you can simply move a cause forward by filling out a ballot--that is not the world we live in.
Want a pro-life American, Rich? Change the hearts and minds of the half of the population who agrees that abortion is ok! You cannot do that by wearing a button of the "right" candidate or being outraged over a fellow person's vote that you do not agree with.
And it might not be God's will to have same-sex marriages, but we have the rank hypocrisy that I can marry and divorce over and over again-for any reason--but others cannot marry once? Biblical marriage would be mean an end to almost all divorces--give me a candidate who would support that change to the laws and I might get excited for him/her . . . but as it is, the current concern over gay marriage is more about scapegoating and pandering to the conservative base than it is about being biblical.
Neither Romney nor Obama is going to save babies or marriages--how about voting for candidate on the issues they can change?
And finally, RICHARD, how about not denigrating some other person's Christian faith because they do not vote like you do--now that is change that we can ALL believe in.
Posted By: Adam B. | November 7, 2012 11:58 PM
As a Canadian Christian following all the U.S. political polarization of the last few years, I now feel utterly discouraged about the possibility of finding any rational thought among people of faith. These posts amplify my discouragement. White evangelicals are so vitriolic in their hatred of Obama that I've begun to think that I call on an entirely different God. In my opinion, evangelical America has gone way downhill -- even since the Bush era -- in its determination to re-marry church and state. That 1940s image of mother at the stove in seamed stockings while an apple pie cools on the windowsill is NOT a depiction of Christendom; it's a sentimentalization of an era that wasn't one bit holier than this era is now. Whiter, maybe, but not holier. And despite what they say in the Church of FOX, morning in Obama's America does NOT mean "'Bye, honey, I'm off to my abortion".
Posted By: Melinda | November 8, 2012 12:27 AM
P.S. I don't include Adam B.'s comment among the ones that fill me with discouragement.
Posted By: Melinda | November 8, 2012 12:31 AM
I work with Hollywood and the media. I am Christian. I have seen the machine from the inside. American Christians have been led by a small group of people who control our nation's messaging. The next four years will reveal much. I am sorry to say that. But it is the truth. My advice: get alone before Christ and His word. Don't ask Him to open the blind eyes of your brother. Ask Him to speak directly to you as to how you are to walk in obedience to His Word. And when He makes it clear, do it. Whatever the cost.
Posted By: Zac | November 8, 2012 8:05 AM
Evangelical Brothers & Sisters,
I love the ways of Jesus, but comments from the 'right' here are exactly why so many people find the gospel message so un-interesting. Neither kindness nor goodness play out in real life when only the 'anti-abortion' stance and homosexual marriage issues are held up as being of importance to the ways of Jesus Christ.
~Wars and rumors of war are directly addressed in the biblical text.
~Taking advantage of the poor is addressed in the biblical text.
~Caring for our neighbors, regardless if it is a health care system, is addressed in the biblical text.
To claim that you have a corner on the gospel by being righteous about two issues ignores the majority of the biblical text. It also provides an exceedingly poor means of convincing others that Jesus is worth following.
Furthermore, the major players in the Republican party don't care about these issues. They use they evangelical voting block for their gain. Reagan had all the influence in the world, but he scoffed at the idea of repealing abortion rights.
Chasing after goodness, kindness, justice, and mercy would have more value than words of condemnation... at least if you are more serious about the good news of the kingdom than political advantages.
Posted By: randy buist | November 8, 2012 12:34 PM
The election is over. We have a president. As Chuck Swindoll so eloquently put it: "life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond". So...Christian brothers and sisters of all opinions, how shall we respond?
Posted By: Zac | November 8, 2012 5:35 PM
My husband and I are both (practicing) Christians. I was very sad after reading some of these comments. It must hurt the heart of God to see so many people who call themselves Christians, be so confused and decieved. Because we realize that God is our (economic, wellness and protection) provider we do not vote for a person because of race, political affiliation or for what they can give us. Man is fallible and politicians are known to embellish the truth. Voting is a privliledge that we have as citizens of America, therefore we vote. But because we know God is faithful (and has been to us) and no politician is totally honest, we vote for the one who seems most moral. If God says someting is sin, than it's sin. We will NEVER comprise our Christian values by agreeing with anyone that wants to call right wrong and wrong right. The Bible is the inerrant word of God, don't just read it, pray and study it.
Posted By: Cheryl | November 8, 2012 7:23 PM
Adam,
Has abortion rates declined ... you bet .. they declined 29% from 1980 to 2008. And you can argue that this was influenced by leaders and presidents who were committed to life.
Who you vote for does have consequences and can make changes. You miss the point that this means you vote only 'right wing' ... this is about NOT casting your vote for those who are so overwhelmingly opposed to Christian values.
As a Christian, voting for any politicians (democratic or republican) who promote abortion on demand and want to export abortion in Africa as a condition for humanitarian aid is wrong. Voting for politicians who nominate judges that impose gay marriage on their citizens is wrong. Voting for politicians who actively promote gay marriage is wrong for America. Voting for politicians who want to silence religious liberty in schools and our government is wrong. What don't you get about the connection of our vote and its consequences?
I agree that only God can change the hearts of our leaders and of a nation. I am not looking to conservative politics or any politicians to bring revival to our country. But that does not mean that Christians have no moral civic obligation , as ambassadors of Christ, to represent biblical values when we vote. And support of a political groups who promotes abortion on demand should be a glaring case in point to highlight the gaping disconnect Christian so mindlessly make in the voting booth. So you want to lend your vote to the team who has no issue with killing babies so you can advance a tiny agenda on some more social entitlements spending .. really?
The culture we live in is part of an age old battle of good and evil which will not be fixed until Christ returns. The world's culture and values is like a strong river and it is our job to swim upstream and not go with the flow. Get along to go along (with non-biblical values) is not your calling if you're going to be salt and light. John the Baptist called it straight and didn't shirk making political and religiously incorrect statements.
Dietrich Bonhoffer who gave his life opposing Nazi Germany once said " “Silence in the face of evil is itself evil: God will not hold us guiltless. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.” I am tired of Christians are asleep at the wheel and so eager to compromise their values.
William Wilberforce became a devout evangelical Christian after he was in office turned to devote over 40 years of his life fighting slave trade and slave ownership before he died. Using your logic, since slavery was a foregone part of the British Empire, no sense in wasting your time voting for this Christian apologist. Wilberforce was called a hypocrite, a fraud, and was lambasted by the highest leaders for allowing 'religion to invade public life' (beginning to sound familiar?). And in his lifetime, he wrote a book which rebuked nominal Christianity, the likes of what we see today in America and used biblical theology to frame the debate on abolition.
Where are the Christians making a cultural difference today? Why are we locking arms with those whose beliefs are antithetical to ours? Why the glaring compromise of core values in a morally declining society?
Posted By: Rich | November 9, 2012 12:41 AM
God bless you, Rich
Posted By: Cheryl | November 9, 2012 7:24 AM
More than ever before, Democrats prove that they are the UNITED party of voters who will never abandon their candidates regardless of job performance. They proudly boo God during their national convention, but they are UNITED. They continue to support a Democratic majority Senate and a Democratic Presidency that has blamed every current problem on the Republicans (don't forget Bush) for the past four years.
Meanwhile, evangelicals argue about theology and why Romney and Republicans don't meet their pure Christian standards for a political candidate. Game. Set. Match. We lose again.
Posted By: James Russell | November 9, 2012 10:54 AM
When will Jesus' followers who happen to live in America be able to understand the fact that we have more power at our disposal than any government institution? Neither the government nor our beloved country is the Church of Jesus Christ. The Church has bought into the lie that who resides in the White House or halls of Congress have the FINAL say about what God will accomplish in our midst. Renewal is first and foremost about OURSELVES and the Church. It's NOT about our government and country. We belong to a radically different Kingdom altogether. It's about MY heart, not someone else's, and OUR life in the Church. Am I willing to lay down my issues, my idols, so my hands are free to pick up the cross? Each of us will be judged by our own actions. Let us show grace, not condemnation, to others on this journey. The ultimate question I use: am I living MY life in such a way that makes it easier or more difficult for someone to follow and love Jesus? If we continue to use our pet issues as divining rods to point out the inadequate spirituality of others, and thereby prop up ourselves on their perceived spiritual weaknesses, we risk losing our very Life in the process. We need to quit restraining the Holy Spirit by jumping on the issues bandwagon, no matter how righteous it makes us believe we are, and commit to following Jesus in the surprising ways he will lead. If we do not expect to be surprised (meaning that we've got it all figured out?) then we've lost our way altogether. Are we even ABLE to discuss following Jesus without mentioning our pet issues? Sometimes I wonder. It will mean we must give up following religious leaders who would lead us astray. Some among their ranks simply mirror our own base desires to surround ourselves with like-minded idealogs. How absolutely boring is that?! I for one would like to pray for the courage to take a new tack in Christian discourse by abandoning my particular wagons or soapboxes. We belittle God's calling if we keep replicating the unending, hopeless dribble of the secular world. Ours is a much higher calling. The Holy Spirit offers so much more of all things good and noble AND gives us the power to soar beyond our existence as less than adequate followers of Jesus. May God bless us all on our difficult journeys.
Posted By: Susan Cummings | November 9, 2012 4:11 PM
People that voted for obama can't be Christians, period! How can someone approve of homosexuality and murdering infant babies and not be convicted? It cannot be. It violates the entire plan of salvation and reality. Those people call themselves Christians just like obama does.
Posted By: Mark Edwards | November 12, 2012 7:08 PM
Do all these stats for "evangelicals" and "born-again Christians" include Black, Latino, and Asian people? Or is the riding assumption that only White people can be born-again Christians?
Posted By: Jonathan | November 14, 2012 11:18 PM
I would beg for just a general comment!
I fear now that the BIBLE (God's word) has long been removed from our schools, our moral compass is and will be broke until such time it is reinstated as our country's way forward. Fact, the youth in our culture are increasingly more agnostic or atheistic due to this void.
Man (our government) in His (their) limited wisdom through roughly 25% functionality of his (their) organic brain(s) have decided they can play GOD.
My fear is they will fail drastically and at the same time alienate all of us (in mortal form) from the vary entity that has created and sustained us for the past 200+ years.
God's laws (immortal) will remain long after this heaven and earth shall pass.
Man's laws (mortal) shall pass away.
Note:"In Physics it is known as the 2nd Law of Thermonuclear Dynamics regarding the decaying factors of the known universe."
So for me at least (far be it from me not to recognize my sinful nature through my mortality) the issue rest with what is mortal vs what is immortal.
I pray that as born again Christians of all creeds (Christ has no fences) that we understand that we are the salt and light of the earth and that the fruits of the the spirit most notably found in the gospel of Matthew and God's wisdom through his word the BIBLE give us an undeniable anchor to weather this life's storms.
Always keep your eye on the prize and remember just helping one other soul reach immortality covers a multitude of our own sins!
Posted By: Scott | April 13, 2013 1:40 PM
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