October 29, 2008
Evangelicals by Swing States
Indiana: 57 (McCain) 33 (Obama) percent
Update: Mark Silk has a helpful explanation of why Hoosier evangelicals are significant (besides the fact that Indiana is my home state).
In this usually dependable red state, it is not good news for McCain that evangelicals are supporting him by less than 2-1 (57-33). In 2004, they backed Bush 77-22. Bush won Indiana by 21 points, 60-39. Evangelicals constitute 35 percent of the Hoosier vote, so their 31-point shift toward Obama represents about half the total shift in the partisan breakdown from 2004 to now. In other words, evangelicals in Indiana seem to be shifting disproportionately toward Obama. For a core (as opposed to a swing) constituency, that's big news indeed.