December 2, 2008
Non-Evangelicals Didn't Move to Obama
About two months ago I sagely predicted that mainline Protestants would flood to Obama and white evangelicals (thanks to Obama's positions on abortion, Sarah Palin and other factors) wouldn't go anywhere near him.
It looks like I got it pretty much exactly backward. I've written elsewhere why I think evangelicals did move to Obama in meaningful numbers, but I'm absolutely stumped by this: according to an analysis by the Pew Religion Forum, non-evangelical Protestants didn't move to Obama at all. Kerry got 44%. So did Obama.
Given that just about every other religious group shifted to the Democrat, I'm scratching my head as to why these folks didn't.
(Originally posted at Steve Waldman's blog at Beliefnet.)